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Why is binary the preferred computer processing system compared to allowing more options?

I feel that there would be an optimal tradeoff between binary systems with high/low transistors compared to another that allows for "transistors" to have more than two potential values. For instance, if we consider DNA, there are four options (GATC), which doubles the potential processing (or maybe I'm using the wrong term). Even more, if you have four potential values per transistor, that is 16 options. So if Moore's law is just about packing more and more transistors into a (relatively) finite chip space, have computer scientists considered that there might be other options besides binary that could be more optimal? Of course, at some level of potential values a transistor could take, I would imagine that a different system would perform better.
submitted by rubes6 to askscience [link] [comments]

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Comparative Study by Yee Kok Siong In Binary Options Trading

Comparative Study by Yee Kok Siong In Binary Options Trading submitted by yeekoksiong to u/yeekoksiong [link] [comments]

Binary options industry in the last 2 years has evolved a great deal. Currently there are more than 600 brokers worldwide and it is difficult to choose a safe brokerage. binaryswap.com also tried brokers we offer you to compare post-op. https://binaryswap.com/en/

submitted by binaryswapcom to BinaryOptions_2016 [link] [comments]

Program for comparing two binary files with the option to filter changes.

I'm looking for a tool that can let me compare two similar binary files and filter so I can view only specific changes. For example, the two files I have, one of them have several bytes flipped from 0 to 1, but it also some other changes that I don't care about, so I'd like to only see and edit the bytes flipped from 0 to 1.
I've tried a ton of programs today including HxD, Hex Workshop, Beyond Compare, ExamDiff Pro, and FlexHex but none of them really offer the ability to filter the comparison.
submitted by AdmiralSpeedy to software [link] [comments]

Compare regulated binary options brokers

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CLI & GUI v0.17.1.3 'Oxygen Orion' released!

This is the CLI & GUI v0.17.1.3 'Oxygen Orion' point release. This release predominantly features bug fixes and performance improvements. Users, however, are recommended to upgrade, as it includes mitigations for the issue where transactions occasionally fail.

(Direct) download links (GUI)

(Direct) download links (CLI)

GPG signed hashes

We encourage users to check the integrity of the binaries and verify that they were signed by binaryFate's GPG key. A guide that walks you through this process can be found here for Windows and here for Linux and Mac OS X.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA256 # This GPG-signed message exists to confirm the SHA256 sums of Monero binaries. # # Please verify the signature against the key for binaryFate in the # source code repository (/utils/gpg_keys). # # ## CLI 38a04a7bd00733e9d943edba3004e44730c0848fe5e8a4fca4cb29c12d1e6b2f monero-android-armv7-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 0e94f58572646992ee21f01d291211ed3608e8a46ecb6612b378a2188390dba0 monero-android-armv8-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 ae1a1b61d7b4a06690cb22a3389bae5122c8581d47f3a02d303473498f405a1a monero-freebsd-x64-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 57d6f9c25bd1dbc9d6b39fcfb13260b21c5594b4334e8ed3b8922108730ee2f0 monero-linux-armv7-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 a0419993fbc6a5ca11bcd2e825acef13e429824f4d8c7ba4ec73ac446d2af2fb monero-linux-armv8-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 cf3fb693339caed43a935c890d71ecab5b89c430e778dc5ef0c3173c94e5bf64 monero-linux-x64-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 d107384ff7b1f77ee4db93940dbfda24d6045bf59c43169bc81a0118e3986bfa monero-linux-x86-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 79557c8bee30b229bda90bb9ee494097d639d60948fc2ad87a029359b56b1b48 monero-mac-x64-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 3eee0d0e896fb426ef92a141a95e36cb33ca7d1e1db3c1d4cb7383994af43a59 monero-win-x64-v0.17.1.3.zip c9e9dde61b33adccd7e794eba8ba29d820817213b40a2571282309d25e64e88a monero-win-x86-v0.17.1.3.zip # ## GUI 15ad80b2abb18ac2521398c4dad9b8bfea2e6fc535cf4ebcc60d99b8042d4fb2 monero-gui-install-win-x64-v0.17.1.3.exe 3bed02f9db5b7b2fe4115a636fecf0c6ec9079dd4e9284c8ce2c67d4996e2a4a monero-gui-linux-x64-v0.17.1.3.tar.bz2 23405534c7973a8d6908b76121b81894dc853039c942d7527d254dfde0bd2e8f monero-gui-mac-x64-v0.17.1.3.dmg 0a49ccccb561445f3d7ec0087ddc83a8b76f424fb7d5e0d725222f3639375ec4 monero-gui-win-x64-v0.17.1.3.zip # # # ~binaryFate -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- iQIzBAEBCAAdFiEEgaxZH+nEtlxYBq/D8K9NRioL35IFAl+oVkkACgkQ8K9NRioL 35Lmpw//Xs09T4917sbnRH/DW/ovpRyjF9dyN1ViuWQW91pJb+E3i9TY+wU3q85k LyTihDB5pV+3nYgKPL9TlLfaytJIQG0vYHykPWHVmYmvoIs9BLarGwaU3bjO0rh9 ST5GDMdvxmQ5Y1LTwVfKkmBJw26DAs0xAvjBX44oRQjjuUdH6JdLPsqa5Kb++NCM b453m5s8bT3Cw6w0eJB1FQEyQ5BoDrwYcFzzsS1ag/C4Ylq0l6CZfEambfOQvdUi 7D5Rywfhiz2t7cfn7LaoXb74KDA/B1bL+R1/KhCuFqxRTOQzq9IxRywh4VptAAMU UR7jFHFijOMoyggIbkD48JmAjlBnqIyQJt4D5gbHe+tSaSoKdgoTGBAmIvaCZIng jfn9pTNzIJbTptsQhhyZqQQIH87D8BctZfX7pREjJmMNGwN2jFxXqUNqYTso20E6 YLtC1mkZBBZ294xHqT1mQpfznc6uVJhhoJpta0eKxkr1ahrGvWBDGZeVhLswnBcq 9dafAkR14rdK1naiCsygb6hMvBqBohVu/bWuhycJcv6XRvlP7UHkR6R8+s6U4Tk2 zaJERQF+cHQpEak5aEJIvDlb/mxteGyvPkPyL7UmADEQh3C4nREwkDSdnitYnF+e HxJZkshoC98+YCkWUP4+JYOOT158jKao3u0laEOxVGOrPz1Nc64= =Ys4h -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- 

Upgrading (GUI)

Note that you should be able to utilize the automatic updater in the GUI that was recently added. A pop-up will appear shortly with the new binary.
In case you want to update manually, you ought to perform the following steps:
  1. Download the new binaries (the .zip file (Windows) or the tar.bz2 file (Mac OS X and Linux)) from the direct download links in this thread or from the official website. If you run active AV (AntiVirus) software, I'd recommend to apply this guide -> https://monero.stackexchange.com/questions/10798/my-antivirus-av-software-blocks-quarantines-the-monero-gui-wallet-is-there
  2. Extract the new binaries (the .zip file (Windows) or the tar.bz2 file (Mac OS X and Linux) you just downloaded) to a new directory / folder of your liking.
  3. Open monero-wallet-gui. It should automatically load your "old" wallet.
If, for some reason, the GUI doesn't automatically load your old wallet, you can open it as follows:
[1] On the second page of the wizard (first page is language selection) choose Open a wallet from file
[2] Now select your initial / original wallet. Note that, by default, the wallet files are located in Documents\Monero\ (Windows), Users//Monero/ (Mac OS X), or home//Monero/ (Linux).
Lastly, note that a blockchain resync is not needed, i.e., it will simply pick up where it left off.

Upgrading (CLI)

You ought to perform the following steps:
  1. Download the new binaries (the .zip file (Windows) or the tar.bz2 file (Mac OS X and Linux)) from the official website, the direct download links in this thread, or Github.
  2. Extract the new binaries to a new directory of your liking.
  3. Copy over the wallet files from the old directory (i.e. the v0.15.x.x, v0.16.x.x, or v0.17.x.x directory).
  4. Start monerod and monero-wallet-cli (in case you have to use your wallet).
Note that a blockchain resync is not needed. Thus, if you open monerod-v0.17.1.3, it will simply pick up where it left off.

Release notes (GUI)

Some highlights of this minor release are:
  • Android support (experimental)
  • Linux binary is now reproducible (experimental)
  • Simple mode: transaction reliability improvements
  • New transaction confirmation dialog
  • Wizard: minor design changes
  • Linux: high DPI support
  • Fix "can't connect to daemon" issue
  • Minor bug fixes
Some highlights of this major release are:
  • Support for CLSAG transaction format
  • Socks5 proxy support, automatically enabled on Tails
  • Simple mode transactions are sent trough local daemon, improved reliability
  • Portable mode, save wallets + config to "storage" folder
  • History page: improvements, incoming / outgoing labels
  • Transfer: new success dialog
  • CMake build system improvements
  • Windows cross compilation support using Docker
  • Various minor bug and UI fixes
Note that you can find a full change log here.

Release notes (CLI)

Some highlights of this minor release are:
  • Add support for I2P and Tor seed nodes (--tx-proxy)
  • Add --ban-list daemon option to ban a list of IP addresses
  • Switch to Dandelion++ fluff mode if no out connections for stem mode
  • Fix a bug with relay_tx
  • Fix a rare readline related crash
  • Use /16 filtering on IPv4-within-IPv6 addresses
  • Give all hosts the same chance of being picked for connecting
  • Minor bugfixes
Some highlights of this major release are:
  • Support for CLSAG transaction format
  • Deterministic unlock times
  • Enforce claiming maximum coinbase amount
  • Serialization format changes
  • Remove most usage of Boost library
  • Always send raw transactions through P2P, don't use bootstrap daemon
  • Update InProofV1, OutProofV1, and ReserveProofV1 to V2
  • ASM optimizations for wallet refresh (macOS / Linux)
  • Randomized delay when forwarding txes from i2p/tor -> ipv4/6
  • New show_qr_code wallet command for CLI
  • Add ZMQ/Pub support for txpool_add and chain_main events
  • Various bug fixes and performance improvements
Note that you can find a full change log here.

Further remarks

  • A guide on pruning can be found here.
  • Ledger Monero users, please be aware that version 1.7.4 of the Ledger Monero App is required in order to properly use CLI or GUI v0.17.1.3.

Guides on how to get started (GUI)

https://github.com/monero-ecosystem/monero-GUI-guide/blob/mastemonero-GUI-guide.md
Older guides: (These were written for older versions, but are still somewhat applicable)
Sheep’s Noob guide to Monero GUI in Tails
https://medium.com/@Electricsheep56/the-monero-gui-wallet-broken-down-in-plain-english-bd2889b8c202

Ledger GUI guides:

How do I generate a Ledger Monero wallet with the GUI (monero-wallet-gui)?
How do I restore / recreate my Ledger Monero wallet?

Trezor GUI guides:

How do I generate a Trezor Monero wallet with the GUI (monero-wallet-gui)?
How to use Monero with Trezor - by Trezor
How do I restore / recreate my Trezor Monero wallet?

Ledger & Trezor CLI guides

Guides to resolve common issues (GUI)

My antivirus (AV) software blocks / quarantines the Monero GUI wallet, is there a work around I can utilize?
I am missing (not seeing) a transaction to (in) the GUI (zero balance)
Transaction stuck as “pending” in the GUI
How do I move the blockchain (data.mdb) to a different directory during (or after) the initial sync without losing the progress?
I am using the GUI and my daemon doesn't start anymore
My GUI feels buggy / freezes all the time
The GUI uses all my bandwidth and I can't browse anymore or use another application that requires internet connection
How do I change the language of the 25 word mnemonic seed in the GUI or CLI?
I am using remote node, but the GUI still syncs blockchain?

Using the GUI with a remote node

In the wizard, you can either select Simple mode or Simple mode (bootstrap) to utilize this functionality. Note that the GUI developers / contributors recommend to use Simple mode (bootstrap) as this mode will eventually use your own (local) node, thereby contributing to the strength and decentralization of the network. Lastly, if you manually want to set a remote node, you ought to use Advanced mode. A guide can be found here:
https://www.getmonero.org/resources/user-guides/remote_node_gui.html

Adding a new language to the GUI

https://github.com/monero-ecosystem/monero-translations/blob/masteweblate.md
If, after reading all these guides, you still require help, please post your issue in this thread and describe it in as much detail as possible. Also, feel free to post any other guides that could help people.
submitted by dEBRUYNE_1 to Monero [link] [comments]

Testing out a new wallet on enerc's Aeon-daemon.

Testing out a new wallet on enerc's Aeon-daemon. submitted by tachyon10 to Aeon [link] [comments]

Bluehole - Let's talk Wellbia/XINGCOD3 user privacy risks for the sake of transparency

For those who don't know..
XINGCODE-3 is a kernel (ring0) privillege process under xhunter1.sys owned by the Korean company Wellbia (www.wellbia.com). Unlike what people say, Wellbia isn't owned or affiliated with Tencent, however, XINGCOD3 is custom designed contractor for each individual game - mainly operating in the APAC region, many of them owned by Tencent.
XINGCODE-3 is outsourced to companies as a product modified to the specific characteristics of the game. The process runs on the highest privilegied level of the OS upon boot and is infamous for being an essential rootkit - on a malware level, it has the highest vulnerability to be abused should Wellbia or any of the 3rd Party Companies be target of an attack.
It has been heavily dissected by the hacking community as being highly intrusive and reversed engineered (although nowadays still easily bypassable by a skilled and engaged modder by created a custom Win Framework).
While most is true for a standard anti-cheating, users should be aware that XINGCOD3 able to scan the entire user memory cache, calls for DLL's, including physical state API's such as GetAsyncKeyState where it scans for the physical state of hardware peripherals, essentially becoming a hardware keylogger. Studying the long history of reverse engineering of this software has shown that Wellbia heavily collects user data for internal processing in order to create whitelists of processes and strings analyzed by evaluating PE binaries - having full access to your OS it also is known to scan and having access to user file directories and collecting and storing paths of modified files under 48 hours for the sake of detecting possible sources of bypassing.
All this data is ultimately collected by Wellbia to their host severs - also via API calls to Korean servers in order to run services such as whitelists, improve algorithm accuracy and run comparative statistics and analysis based on binaries, strings and common flags.
Usually this is a high risk for any service, including BattleEye, EasyAntiCheat, etc. but what's worrying in Wellbia, thus. Bluehole's are actually a couple of points:
(not to mention you can literally just deny the service from installing, which by itself is already a hilarious facepalm situation and nowhere does the TSL call for an API of the service)
  1. Starting off, Wellbia is a rather small development company with having only one product available on the market for rather small companies, the majority hold by Chinese government and countries where the data handling, human rights and user privacy is heavily disregarded. This makes my tinfoil hat think that the studio's network security isn't as fortified as a Sony which had abused rootkits, just due to budget investment alone. Their website is absolutely atrocious and amateur - and for an international company that deals with international stakeholders and clients it's impressive the amount of poor english, errors and ambiguous information a company has in their presentation website - there's instances where the product name is not even correctly placed in their own EULA - if a company cannot invest even in basic PR and presentation something leaves me a bitter taste that their network security isn't anything better. They can handle user binaries but network security is a completely different work. The fact that hackers are easily able to heartbeat their API network servers leaves me confirming this.
  2. This the most fun one. Wellbia website and terms conditions explicitely say that they're not held accountable should anything happen - terms that you agree and are legally binded to by default by agreeing to Bluehole's terms and conditions:" Limitations of Company Responsibility
  1. IGNCODE3 is a software provided for free to users. Users judge and determine to use services served by software developers and providers, and therefore the company does not have responsibility for results and damages which may have occurred from XIGNCODE3 installation and use.
(the fact that in 1. they can't even care to write properly the name of their product means how little they care about things in general - you can have a look at this whole joke of ToS's that I can probably put more effort in writting it: https://www.wellbia.com/?module=Html&action=SiteComp&sSubNo=5 - so I am sorry if I don't trust where my data goes into)
3) It kinda pisses me that Bluehole adopted this in the midst of the their product got released post-purchase. When I initially bought the product, in nowhere was written that the user operative system data was being collected by a third party company to servers located in APAC (and I'm one of those persons who heavily reads terms and conditions) - and the current ToS's still just touch this topic on the slightest and ambiguously - it does not say which data gets collected, discloses who and where it's hold - "third party" could be literally anyone - a major disrespect for your consumers. I'm kinda of pissed off as when I initially purchase the product in very very early stages of the game I didn't agree for any kernel level data collection to be held abroad without disclosure of what data is actually being collected otherwise it would have been a big No on the purchase. The fact that you change the rules of the game and the terms of conditions in the midst of the product release leaves me with two options Use to Your Terms or Don't Use a product I've already purchased now has no use - both changes ingame and these 3rd party implementations are so different from my initial purchase that I feel like it's the equivalent of purchasing a shower which in the next year is so heavily modified that it decides to be a toilet.
I would really like for you Bluehole to show me the initial terms and conditions to when the game was initially released and offer me a refund once you decided to change the product and terms and conditions midway which I don't agree with but am left empty handed with no choice but to abandon the product - thus making this purchase a service which I used for X months and not a good.
I really wish this topic had more visibility as I know that the majority of users are even in the dark about this whole thing and Valve and new game companies really make an effort in asserting their product's disclosures about data transparency and the limit of how much a product can change to be considered a valid product resembelance upon purchase when curating their games in the future - I literally bought a third person survival shooter and ended up with a rootkit chinese FPS.
Sincerely, a pissed off customer - who unlike the majority is concerned about my data privacy and I wish you're ever held accountable for changing sensitive contract topics such as User Privacy mid-release.
-----
EDIT:
For completely removing it from your system should you wish:

Locate the file Xhunter1.sysThis file is located in this directory: C:\Windows\xhunter1.sys

Remove the Registry Entry (regedit on command prompt)The entry is located here: HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE > SYSTEM > ControlSet001 > Services > xhunter


For more information about XINGCOD3 and previous succesful abuses which show the malignant potential of the rootkit (kudos to Psychotropos):

- https://x86.re/blog/xigncode3-xhunter1.sys-lpe/
- https://github.com/Psychotropos/xhunter1_privesc
submitted by cosmonauts5512 to PUBATTLEGROUNDS [link] [comments]

No gods, no kings, only NOPE - or divining the future with options flows. [Part 3: Hedge Winding, Unwinding, and the NOPE]

Hello friends!
We're on the last post of this series ("A Gentle Introduction to NOPE"), where we get to use all the Big Boy Concepts (TM) we've discussed in the prior posts and put them all together. Some words before we begin:
  1. This post will be massively theoretical, in the sense that my own speculation and inferences will be largely peppered throughout the post. Are those speculations right? I think so, or I wouldn't be posting it, but they could also be incorrect.
  2. I will briefly touch on using the NOPE this slide, but I will make a secondary post with much more interesting data and trends I've observed. This is primarily for explaining what NOPE is and why it potentially works, and what it potentially measures.
My advice before reading this is to glance at my prior posts, and either read those fully or at least make sure you understand the tl;drs:
https://www.reddit.com/thecorporation/collection/27dc72ad-4e78-44cd-a788-811cd666e32a
Depending on popular demand, I will also make a last-last post called FAQ, where I'll tabulate interesting questions you guys ask me in the comments!
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So a brief recap before we begin.
Market Maker ("Mr. MM"): An individual or firm who makes money off the exchange fees and bid-ask spread for an asset, while usually trying to stay neutral about the direction the asset moves.
Delta-gamma hedging: The process Mr. MM uses to stay neutral when selling you shitty OTM options, by buying/selling shares (usually) of the underlying as the price moves.
Law of Surprise [Lily-ism]: Effectively, the expected profit of an options trade is zero for both the seller and the buyer.
Random Walk: A special case of a deeper probability probability called a martingale, which basically models stocks or similar phenomena randomly moving every step they take (for stocks, roughly every millisecond). This is one of the most popular views of how stock prices move, especially on short timescales.
Future Expected Payoff Function [Lily-ism]: This is some hidden function that every market participant has about an asset, which more or less models all the possible future probabilities/values of the assets to arrive at a "fair market price". This is a more generalized case of a pricing model like Black-Scholes, or DCF.
Counter-party: The opposite side of your trade (if you sell an option, they buy it; if you buy an option, they sell it).
Price decoherence ]Lily-ism]: A more generalized notion of IV Crush, price decoherence happens when instead of the FEPF changing gradually over time (price formation), the FEPF rapidly changes, due usually to new information being added to the system (e.g. Vermin Supreme winning the 2020 election).
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One of the most popular gambling events for option traders to play is earnings announcements, and I do owe the concept of NOPE to hypothesizing specifically about the behavior of stock prices at earnings. Much like a black hole in quantum mechanics, most conventional theories about how price should work rapidly break down briefly before, during, and after ER, and generally experienced traders tend to shy away from playing earnings, given their similar unpredictability.
Before we start: what is NOPE? NOPE is a funny backronym from Net Options Pricing Effect, which in its most basic sense, measures the impact option delta has on the underlying price, as compared to share price. When I first started investigating NOPE, I called it OPE (options pricing effect), but NOPE sounds funnier.
The formula for it is dead simple, but I also have no idea how to do LaTeX on reddit, so this is the best I have:

https://preview.redd.it/ais37icfkwt51.png?width=826&format=png&auto=webp&s=3feb6960f15a336fa678e945d93b399a8e59bb49
Since I've already encountered this, put delta in this case is the absolute value (50 delta) to represent a put. If you represent put delta as a negative (the conventional way), do not subtract it; add it.
To keep this simple for the non-mathematically minded: the NOPE today is equal to the weighted sum (weighted by volume) of the delta of every call minus the delta of every put for all options chains extending from today to infinity. Finally, we then divide that number by the # of shares traded today in the market session (ignoring pre-market and post-market, since options cannot trade during those times).
Effectively, NOPE is a rough and dirty way to approximate the impact of delta-gamma hedging as a function of share volume, with us hand-waving the following factors:
  1. To keep calculations simple, we assume that all counter-parties are hedged. This is obviously not true, especially for idiots who believe theta ganging is safe, but holds largely true especially for highly liquid tickers, or tickers will designated market makers (e.g. any ticker in the NASDAQ, for instance).
  2. We assume that all hedging takes place via shares. For SPY and other products tracking the S&P, for instance, market makers can actually hedge via futures or other options. This has the benefit for large positions of not moving the underlying price, but still makes up a fairly small amount of hedges compared to shares.

Winding and Unwinding

I briefly touched on this in a past post, but two properties of NOPE seem to apply well to EER-like behavior (aka any binary catalyst event):
  1. NOPE measures sentiment - In general, the options market is seen as better informed than share traders (e.g. insiders trade via options, because of leverage + easier to mask positions). Therefore, a heavy call/put skew is usually seen as a bullish sign, while the reverse is also true.
  2. NOPE measures system stability
I'm not going to one-sentence explain #2, because why say in one sentence what I can write 1000 words on. In short, NOPE intends to measure sensitivity of the system (the ticker) to disruption. This makes sense, when you view it in the context of delta-gamma hedging. When we assume all counter-parties are hedged, this means an absolutely massive amount of shares get sold/purchased when the underlying price moves. This is because of the following:
a) Assume I, Mr. MM sell 1000 call options for NKLA 25C 10/23 and 300 put options for NKLA 15p 10/23. I'm just going to make up deltas because it's too much effort to calculate them - 30 delta call, 20 delta put.
This implies Mr. MM needs the following to delta hedge: (1000 call options * 30 shares to buy for each) [to balance out writing calls) - (300 put options * 20 shares to sell for each) = 24,000 net shares Mr. MM needs to acquire to balance out his deltas/be fully neutral.
b) This works well when NKLA is at $20. But what about when it hits $19 (because it only can go down, just like their trucks). Thanks to gamma, now we have to recompute the deltas, because they've changed for both the calls (they went down) and for the puts (they went up).
Let's say to keep it simple that now my calls are 20 delta, and my puts are 30 delta. From the 24,000 net shares, Mr. MM has to now have:
(1000 call options * 20 shares to have for each) - (300 put options * 30 shares to sell for each) = 11,000 shares.
Therefore, with a $1 shift in price, now to hedge and be indifferent to direction, Mr. MM has to go from 24,000 shares to 11,000 shares, meaning he has to sell 13,000 shares ASAP, or take on increased risk. Now, you might be saying, "13,000 shares seems small. How would this disrupt the system?"
(This process, by the way, is called hedge unwinding)
It won't, in this example. But across thousands of MMs and millions of contracts, this can - especially in highly optioned tickers - make up a substantial fraction of the net flow of shares per day. And as we know from our desk example, the buying or selling of shares directly changes the price of the stock itself.
This, by the way, is why the NOPE formula takes the shape it does. Some astute readers might notice it looks similar to GEX, which is not a coincidence. GEX however replaces daily volume with open interest, and measures gamma over delta, which I did not find good statistical evidence to support, especially for earnings.
So, with our example above, why does NOPE measure system stability? We can assume for argument's sake that if someone buys a share of NKLA, they're fine with moderate price swings (+- $20 since it's NKLA, obviously), and in it for the long/medium haul. And in most cases this is fine - we can own stock and not worry about minor swings in price. But market makers can't* (they can, but it exposes them to risk), because of how delta works. In fact, for most institutional market makers, they have clearly defined delta limits by end of day, and even small price changes require them to rebalance their hedges.
This over the whole market adds up to a lot shares moving, just to balance out your stupid Robinhood YOLOs. While there are some tricks (dark pools, block trades) to not impact the price of the underlying, the reality is that the more options contracts there are on a ticker, the more outsized influence it will have on the ticker's price. This can technically be exactly balanced, if option put delta is equal to option call delta, but never actually ends up being the case. And unlike shares traded, the shares representing the options are more unstable, meaning they will be sold/bought in response to small price shifts. And will end up magnifying those price shifts, accordingly.

NOPE and Earnings

So we have a new shiny indicator, NOPE. What does it actually mean and do?
There's much literature going back to the 1980s that options markets do have some level of predictiveness towards earnings, which makes sense intuitively. Unlike shares markets, where you can continue to hold your share even if it dips 5%, in options you get access to expanded opportunity to make riches... and losses. An options trader betting on earnings is making a risky and therefore informed bet that he or she knows the outcome, versus a share trader who might be comfortable bagholding in the worst case scenario.
As I've mentioned largely in comments on my prior posts, earnings is a special case because, unlike popular misconceptions, stocks do not go up and down solely due to analyst expectations being meet, beat, or missed. In fact, stock prices move according to the consensus market expectation, which is a function of all the participants' FEPF on that ticker. This is why the price moves so dramatically - even if a stock beats, it might not beat enough to justify the high price tag (FSLY); even if a stock misses, it might have spectacular guidance or maybe the market just was assuming it would go bankrupt instead.
To look at the impact of NOPE and why it may play a role in post-earnings-announcement immediate price moves, let's review the following cases:
  1. Stock Meets/Exceeds Market Expectations (aka price goes up) - In the general case, we would anticipate post-ER market participants value the stock at a higher price, pushing it up rapidly. If there's a high absolute value of NOPE on said ticker, this should end up magnifying the positive move since:
a) If NOPE is high negative - This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worthless (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to close out their sold/shorted shares, buying them, and pushing the stock price up.
b) If NOPE is high positive - This means a ton of call buying, which means a lot of puts are now worthless (see a) but also a lot of calls are now worth more. This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to close out their sold/shorted shares AND also buy more shares to cover their calls, pushing the stock price up.
2) Stock Meets/Misses Market Expectations (aka price goes down) - Inversely to what I mentioned above, this should push to the stock price down, fairly immediately. If there's a high absolute value of NOPE on said ticker, this should end up magnifying the negative move since:
a) If NOPE is high negative - This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worth more, and a lot of calls are now worth less/worth less (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell/short more shares, pushing the stock price down.
b) If NOPE is high positive - This means a ton of call buying, which means a lot of calls are now worthless (see a) but also a lot of puts are now worth more. This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell even more shares to keep their calls and puts neutral, pushing the stock price down.
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Based on the above two cases, it should be a bit more clear why NOPE is a measure of sensitivity to system perturbation. While we previously discussed it in the context of magnifying directional move, the truth is it also provides a directional bias to our "random" walk. This is because given a price move in the direction predicted by NOPE, we expect it to be magnified, especially in situations of price decoherence. If a stock price goes up right after an ER report drops, even based on one participant deciding to value the stock higher, this provides a runaway reaction which boosts the stock price (due to hedging factors as well as other participants' behavior) and inures it to drops.

NOPE and NOPE_MAD

I'm going to gloss over this section because this is more statistical methods than anything interesting. In general, if you have enough data, I recommend using NOPE_MAD over NOPE. While NOPE in theory represents a "real" quantity (net option delta over net share delta), NOPE_MAD (the median absolute deviation of NOPE) does not. NOPE_MAD simply answecompare the following:
  1. How exceptional is today's NOPE versus historic baseline (30 days prior)?
  2. How do I compare two tickers' NOPEs effectively (since some tickers, like TSLA, have a baseline positive NOPE, because Elon memes)? In the initial stages, we used just a straight numerical threshold (let's say NOPE >= 20), but that quickly broke down. NOPE_MAD aims to detect anomalies, because anomalies in general give you tendies.
I might add the formula later in Mathenese, but simply put, to find NOPE_MAD you do the following:
  1. Calculate today's NOPE score (this can be done end of day or intraday, with the true value being EOD of course)
  2. Calculate the end of day NOPE scores on the ticker for the previous 30 trading days
  3. Compute the median of the previous 30 trading days' NOPEs
  4. From the median, find the 30 days' median absolute deviation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_absolute_deviation)
  5. Find today's deviation as compared to the MAD calculated by: [(today's NOPE) - (median NOPE of last 30 days)] / (median absolute deviation of last 30 days)
This is usually reported as sigma (σ), and has a few interesting properties:
  1. The mean of NOPE_MAD for any ticker is almost exactly 0.
  2. [Lily's Speculation's Speculation] NOPE_MAD acts like a spring, and has a tendency to reverse direction as a function of its magnitude. No proof on this yet, but exploring it!

Using the NOPE to predict ER

So the last section was a lot of words and theory, and a lot of what I'm mentioning here is empirically derived (aka I've tested it out, versus just blabbered).
In general, the following holds true:
  1. 3 sigma NOPE_MAD tends to be "the threshold": For very low NOPE_MAD magnitudes (+- 1 sigma), it's effectively just noise, and directionality prediction is low, if not non-existent. It's not exactly like 3 sigma is a play and 2.9 sigma is not a play; NOPE_MAD accuracy increases as NOPE_MAD magnitude (either positive or negative) increases.
  2. NOPE_MAD is only useful on highly optioned tickers: In general, I introduce another parameter for sifting through "candidate" ERs to play: option volume * 100/share volume. When this ends up over let's say 0.4, NOPE_MAD provides a fairly good window into predicting earnings behavior.
  3. NOPE_MAD only predicts during the after-market/pre-market session: I also have no idea if this is true, but my hunch is that next day behavior is mostly random and driven by market movement versus earnings behavior. NOPE_MAD for now only predicts direction of price movements right between the release of the ER report (AH or PM) and the ending of that market session. This is why in general I recommend playing shares, not options for ER (since you can sell during the AH/PM).
  4. NOPE_MAD only predicts direction of price movement: This isn't exactly true, but it's all I feel comfortable stating given the data I have. On observation of ~2700 data points of ER-ticker events since Mar 2019 (SPY 500), I only so far feel comfortable predicting whether stock price goes up (>0 percent difference) or down (<0 price difference). This is +1 for why I usually play with shares.
Some statistics:
#0) As a baseline/null hypothesis, after ER on the SPY500 since Mar 2019, 50-51% price movements in the AH/PM are positive (>0) and ~46-47% are negative (<0).
#1) For NOPE_MAD >= +3 sigma, roughly 68% of price movements are positive after earnings.
#2) For NOPE_MAD <= -3 sigma, roughly 29% of price movements are positive after earnings.
#3) When using a logistic model of only data including NOPE_MAD >= +3 sigma or NOPE_MAD <= -3 sigma, and option/share vol >= 0.4 (around 25% of all ERs observed), I was able to achieve 78% predictive accuracy on direction.

Caveats/Read This

Like all models, NOPE is wrong, but perhaps useful. It's also fairly new (I started working on it around early August 2020), and in fact, my initial hypothesis was exactly incorrect (I thought the opposite would happen, actually). Similarly, as commenters have pointed out, the timeline of data I'm using is fairly compressed (since Mar 2019), and trends and models do change. In fact, I've noticed significantly lower accuracy since the coronavirus recession (when I measured it in early September), but I attribute this mostly to a smaller date range, more market volatility, and honestly, dumber option traders (~65% accuracy versus nearly 80%).
My advice so far if you do play ER with the NOPE method is to use it as following:
  1. Buy/short shares approximately right when the market closes before ER. Ideally even buying it right before the earnings report drops in the AH session is not a bad idea if you can.
  2. Sell/buy to close said shares at the first sign of major weakness (e.g. if the NOPE predicted outcome is incorrect).
  3. Sell/buy to close shares even if it is correct ideally before conference call, or by the end of the after-market/pre-market session.
  4. Only play tickers with high NOPE as well as high option/share vol.
---
In my next post, which may be in a few days, I'll talk about potential use cases for SPY and intraday trends, but I wanted to make sure this wasn't like 7000 words by itself.
Cheers.
- Lily
submitted by the_lilypad to thecorporation [link] [comments]

Don't Be A Basic Bench: A Comprehensive Introductory Guide

Hello everyone!
In an effort to keep the subreddit and its wiki filled with good and useful information, we are compiling guides for the main lifts (deadlift, squat, bench, potentially others). These guides will be added to the wiki and posted as posts as they are completed. The goal of these guides is to provide basic lift information, descriptions of some common variations, equipment considerations, related and complimentary exercises, additional resources for further reading, and to showcase incredible women (and non-binary folks) performing these lifts.
This is the second entry in this lift series. Check out the first entry, The Deadlift Guide in the FAQ!
If you have suggestions regarding things that should be added to these guides, or other subjects you'd like to see in the wiki, please message the mods!

The Bench Press

Bench Press Form and Variations

The main muscle group worked by the bench press is the pectoralis major, which is the largest muscle in the chest area. The pectoralis major muscle has two sections that are named for the bones they attach to – the sternal portion attaches to the breast bone and makes up the bulk of the muscle fibers, making up the middle and lower section; the clavicular portion attaches to the collarbone and is the more superior (upper) portion. The bench press also heavily involves the triceps (back of the upper arm), and recruits the deltoid muscles (shoulder), and pectoralis minor to lesser extents.
I’ll first be discussing the form for a standard, flat, “neutral/wide” grip bench press. Variations on this will be discussed below it. This guide is written for barbell bench pressing, but all of these variations can be performed with dumbbells as well.
Flat bench – the standard/”default” bench press Start out flat on the bench with bar directly over your eyes (with spotter) or over your nose/mouth (without spotter), feet flat, butt and upper back planted firmly on the bench. Arching of the lumbar spine is normal, fine, and absolutely legal in lifting competitions. Scapulas (shoulderblades) should be retracted or “pinched together” to provide both a stable flat surface for your upper back to settle on the bench, and to minimize undue tension on your shoulder joints. Retracting your scapulae will also puff your chest up and put your shoulders in a safer position for the lift.
The bar should rest in the heel of your palm so that it is stacked above the wrist, forearm, and elbows through the lift. A slight internal rotation of the hands will help with this positioning and will angle your elbows out slightly. For a standard flat bench press, your hands will be a bit further apart than shoulder width – about 1.5-2x shoulder width is the average position – position your hands so that your forearms will be almost completely perpendicular to the floor at the bottom of the lift.
Retract your scapulae (as if you’re trying to pick up a pencil off the bench between them), keep actively pushing your chest up, take in a big belly breath, and hold it before pushing the bar away from the rack and locking out at the elbows. Bring the bar down your torso so that it is directly over the line of your shoulders – this is likely going to be about the level of the middle of your sternum or your nipple line, but may vary depending on your individual anatomy and the degree of arching your back is doing.
The bar should be directly above your elbows at all times during the movement of the lift. This not only increases stability during the lift, but also prevents undue stress on your triceps or your shoulders. It also is the most efficient configuration for using the majority of the muscle fibers within the pectoralis major.
Speaking of efficiency in recruiting pectoral muscle fibers, let’s talk about arching your back during a bench press. This is a faux controversy like “sumo deadlifting is cheating” – the claim is that an arch will significantly decrease the range of motion for the bar, making the lift “easier”. While the purpose of the arch is to slightly decrease the range of motion, it also makes the lift safer at the bottom of the movement, which is the riskiest for your shoulder joints. It also serves to recruit more of your pectoral muscle fibers to the lift – this should increase the amount of weight one can lift and impact muscle growth when the goal is hypertrophy.
Degree of arching is going to be up to personal preference and anatomy, but some degree of arch is natural and normal. Check out the natural position of the spine and you can see that the lumbar spine (lower back) has a natural forward curve (lordosis) which helps with loadbearing since we’re just hairless upright apes. An arch during bench press may be anywhere from your normal lumbar spine position to an exaggeration of your body’s natural lordosis.
As you lower the bar, keep tension in your upper body by trying to “break the bar in half” or “rip the bar apart” until it touches your mid-to-lower sternum (depending on anatomy and degree of arch). After a touch (and brief pause, if you’re powerlifting), push the bar back upwards and slightly backwards towards your face to lockout. You can now exhale that big belly breath you’ve been holding for the duration of the rep.

How-To Guides/Videos

Bench Press Variations

Helpful Bench Press Cues

Supplemental/Complimentary Exercises

MegSquats also recently posted a “3 tips for push ups” post that several of our users have already mentioned as being helpful.

Equipment, Tools, and Other Considerations

These items are not required to be successful in bench pressing, but can be beneficial to lifters that bench press at any skill or weight level.

Badass Women Bench Pressing Obscene Numbers

Jen Thompson using wrist straps, slingshot, and benchblokz to bench 340lbs 3x
Jen Thompson 330lb PR
Jen Thompson just holding 550lbs in lockout because god damn
Kimberly Walford, legs up 231.5lb
Kimberly Walford, 253.5lbs – note bar path
April Mathis, 355lbs plus 115lbs in chains
Shannon Nash, 380lbs at 185lb BW
Allison Hind – 345lbs at 165BW and 335lbs at 148BW
17 year old Samantha Eugenie, 217lb at 139lbs. Extreme but legal arch - her butt is still in contact with the bench
submitted by Joonami to xxfitness [link] [comments]

Fallout 4 feels to me like a huge, shallow time sink with no payoff and not enough memorable things. [POTENTIAL FALLOUT 4 STRUGGLE SESSION]

I've spent about 60 hours on Fallout 4 in the last few weeks, and I've finally realised that Bethesda games are enormous time wasters. At least Fallout 4 and Skyrim are. The complaints below might be anodyne to a lot of the people here, or they might be very controversial, but these things are hitting me particularly hard while replaying Fallout 4. I've played it before, but having spent so much time with it recently, the realisation has dawned on me more harshly.
Bethesda build these amazing worlds with so much detail and complexity to them, only to inundate you with hours of fetch quests, bore you with a main quest that has no substance, and have you follow a map marker to the detriment of the world they’ve built. They encourage you to look down at the bottom of the screen to the degree that you never have to actually look around at the world to try and find a solution to whatever problem the game throws at you. Even if you turn the objective marker off, the problem that the games have is that 1) some quests require you to know the exact location of an item for you to progress and 2) you're incentivised to look at the bottom of the screen to find new locations to explore instead of just stumbling across them naturally (or with the help of your Pip-Boy map). You're not encouraged to just look at the world. You're not encouraged to memorise the landscapes or routes from one location to another. The fast travel isn't the problem here, either. It has everything to do with the way the game pushes you to walk in one direction nonstop until you reach your objective, and the way new locations are shown to you before you even find them. It's hard to call this "distracting" when it's a fundamental way the game is constructed. You're meant to look at the bottom of the screen. They clearly want your eyes there at all times.
Another problem I have is that almost no companion in either Fallout 4 has a legitimate reason to follow you or feels motivated - ideologically or opportunistically - to do so. I can’t recall a single one of them struggling to have a reason to follow you and just doing it because that’s what the game expects of them. While this problem extends to Skyrim, I want to keep the complaints to Fallout 4 since that's the topic of the sub. Preston has possibly the best reason to follow you: You saved his life and the lives of his friends, and he has nothing else to fight for after the Minutemen are disbanded and his friends find safe haven in Sanctuary. So he doesn't bug me that much. But Piper follows you for basically no reason, because you answer some questions. Does she require you to find her a scoop for her newspaper, or uncover dirt on the mayor? Nope. Nick Valentine kind of abandons his job to follow you after he does a job for you, which makes it seem like he doesn't actually have a full-time job with an employee working for him; he doesn't even require your assistance to work through a different job before he agrees almost unconditionally to follow you. Paladin Danse following a wastelander - even one that helped him in a rough spot - makes even less sense because that's the sort of shit that if his commanders found out about they'd probably reprimand him. They fucking hate Paladins associating with wastelanders. This is established canon. Deacon immediately likes you despite knowing very little about you and requires no convincing for him to follow you. John Hancock is pretty similar. There's just no depth to these companions and even though they all have distinct personalities, the lack of conflict and the lack of conversation options makes them feel very boring and bland. They're fun and entertaining but only on a surface level.
What annoys me more about this is that they will idolise you if you do enough odd tasks to placate them. Pick a bunch of locks with Piper around? She'll sleep with you after you pass a speech check. Use chems around Hancock? He'll tell you what a hip, rad person you are with basically no effort on my part as a player. Just be an asshole to everybody with Cait around? She will fall in love with you. It's so stupid to me. Again, Preston is the one whose affection for the player makes the most sense and requires the most effort; you have to do a lot of pro-Minutemen quests or do a lot of good deeds and stand up to shitty people for him to like you. His loyalty feels earned, and he's pretty much the only one that applies to. But I honestly don't think the level of trust applies to the other characters. They trust you if you just do enough random things they like. They'll spill their guts to you or sleep with you despite having few conversations with them and not helping them with any personal problems. Give Piper a pep talk about her sister, and you're all set. It's frustratingly shallow.
Literally nothing in this game comes anywhere close to earning Cass's or Boone's or Arcade's or Veronica's trust in Fallout: New Vegas. It's honestly kind of a joke by comparison. Those characters won't just follow you for any reason. You can't just twiddle your thumbs to make Boone follow you. You have to help him meaningfully, and even then he only leaves because he doesn't trust anybody and wants to be gone. Veronica follows you only after she senses you aren't hostile to the Brotherhood of Steel, and because she wants a traveling companion. There are explicit and clear reasons why people follow you in that game. And if you want to earn their trust and get them to live in the endgame with relative peace, you need to do an enormous amount to do so. And if you don't want to help them? If you dislike them and don't want anything to do with them? You can literally kill them yourself. The game gives you that option. With Fallout 4 the character relationships feel arbitrary and meaningless, like there's no weight to the beliefs or decisions of anybody. It doesn't help that every character is potentially bisexual and you can technically fuck every single one of them. Just throw on some Fashionable Glasses, drink some alcohol, and wear some fancy clothes, and passing their speech checks is easy. You can coerce people in this game to do things easily.
Which I guess brings me to the fact that there is almost no capacity to roleplay in this ostensibly roleplaying game. You don't have to make sacrifices to accomplish goals, and you don't have to choose a specific path. You can pretty much do anything you want with few limitations, which sounds freeing and liberating, but it actually removes the whole idea of playing a role from a series that has emphasised that for years. An RPG where you can pretty much do anything without risking alienating most people in the world because you chose one side over another is not really an RPG. And when you get around to interacting with people, the dialogue choices are limited as hell, you can't kill essential characters like Preston (which makes saving or helping him a foregone conclusion), questlines play out in an incredibly boring and linear fashion, and outside of a few moments the game doesn't actually give you a lot of room to decide the outcome of major incidents. You don't even have to actually choose one group over another when it comes to combating the Institute. The endings are simplistic and practically binary. I know it's a bit of a meme to compare the choices you have in other Fallout games with this one, and the consequences of those choices, but you have no room to roleplay as a person you want to be in this game. High or low INT doesn't impact the dialogue or speech checks. High or low charisma impacts things minimally. You're pretty much going to have 1 of 2 conversations every time you talk with anybody about anything. Even when you come to the crossroad where you have to choose a side in the main conflict of the game, you can play your cards right and bring everybody together, which sounds good in theory, but it isn't earned in a way that makes the opposing sides set aside their conflict. Ideology dissolves under the weight of the player making decisions that has fuckall to do with these people and their opposition to one another, and it makes it seem like the Minutemen, Brotherhood, and Railroad opposing one another in any way is baseless and petty. There's just nothing to these conflicts. If the characters in your game set aside their differences because the player did 1 thing, then you haven't written compelling conflicts. You've written lousy artifices to trick people into being motivated into bringing them together (which is insultingly easy) or choosing one side over another (which you don't actually need to do).
The settlement minigame is kind of cool, but ultimately pointless. The game doesn't change the least bit whether you decide to build settlements or not. There's no reward to it, and very rarely do you need to build settlements to unlock questlines or get a character to like you. It all feels so damn hollow and pointless. For a game that demands so much time from the player to do things, there's nowhere near enough payoff to justify it. I could just go play Rust or Minecraft or another type of game for a more thorough and less frustrating experience building settlements.
So yeah, that's how I feel about Fallout 4, and even Skyrim for the most part. They're big beautiful time wasters with no real substance. I remember next to nothing about Skyrim after spending a hundred hours in it and while I remember more about Fallout 4, I don't remember being challenged in any meaningful way. I mostly remember shambling from place to place, helping settlement after settlement with raiders and super mutants, until I got bored and went off to Diamond City to fuck around with the main quest that I found underwhelming, and meeting people who don't force me to analyse their beliefs or my own. The conflicts are mostly petty, the quests I'm given feel like tedious chores, and it's all an excuse to get you to explore the world that they ultimately don't even want you to look at because they force your eyes down to the bottom of the screen. It's numbing, repetitious, and draining. I feel part of my soul dying the more I play either one of these games.
Apologies for the melodrama of the writing by the end there, but I'm very frustrated with this game and don't think I'm gonna play it further. I really don't feel like there's a point to anything. I'm becoming a nihilist thanks to this game.
submitted by DouggieMohamJones to Fallout [link] [comments]

A few Questions about Void

I've been using Gentoo for quite some time, and really love its source-first approach, and the flexibility of portage and the ebuild system.
However, there are a number of pain points I've come to experience such as the slow-updating packages, the slow speed with which Gentoo adapts to new technologies (SELinux still can't be used with Systemd on Gentoo without dragons) and a relatively inactive community around overlays. Now that Sakaki has deprecated her overlay and I have to put work into migrating my computer to a stock install, I thought it would be a good time to re-evaluate my options
Unfortunately, most of the other alternatives I've looked at are either lagging further behind Gentoo, abandoned, or have too small teams for me to trust my computer's security to (in my estimation).
The one distro that keeps coming up differently is Void. I've heard that Void works pretty well with a source-based approach, even if it is binary-first. It also seems to have a more active community, a good security team and more regularly updated package-set, so I'm interested in potentially switching.
Does anyone have experience running Void as a source-first (for lack of a better word) distro? How does it compare to Gentoo? Are there any big pain points?
submitted by xelaseer to voidlinux [link] [comments]

RPG skill checks, how do you like them?

I was pondering RPG design and realized I'm not really sure which kind of skill check implementation I personally prefer. From what I can recall, there's a handful of aspects and approaches devs usually take, the ways the check itself works:
  1. deterministic binary - either your skill > X or it isn't
  2. perk-based - like above, but requires you to possess a specific perk instead of numerical skill value
  3. classic rolling - modify skill with randomly generated number, compare with X.
  4. multi-stage resolution - no matter how you determine the result (1/2/3), it results in more than just pass/fail scenarios depending on how your skill value ends up
And also different ways to present them:
  1. secret - you won't know the interaction is even possible unless you select the skill and apply on the item / activate it at the right moment in conversation
  2. hidden - the player is not aware of the option unless they meet the requirements
  3. visible but unavailable - the game tells you there's this option but doesn't let you pick it unless you meet requirements
  4. visible and available - you always have the option, even if using it is automatically going to fail
  5. surprise - the game doesn't warn you upfront, just shows you after it happens (like a DM suddenly teling you to roll for charisma after you do something)
And of course the option of telling players the difficulty of what they're attempting, either by spelling out the numbers or color-coding the options (is there a game that never tells you the difficulty of a test?).
So, which of those approaches do you prefer to see in games and why? And what approaches did I miss?
To kick things off, I'm more of a fan of deterministic checks, but it does invite problems in that not every skill point may matter (e.g. if the checks are always a multiple of 5, then raising your skill by 4 points does nothing). And I appreciate the meta-gaming view of seeing the option being there even when my character is too stupid for it, but it probablyt hurts replayability somewhat when you can see instead of experiment. I would, however, never actually select an option knowing I'd fail, because I don't tend to roleplay like that. I am also not a hardcore gamer who enjoys failing, so I prefer knowing the difficulty of what I'm trying to do.
submitted by Borghal to truegaming [link] [comments]

The Meta Unicorn - Diana Invoke

The Meta Unicorn - Diana Invoke

(CEBASAYJC4RTQP2JJRKFMYACAECQCKACAEBQKAQCAMEQKSYBAEBQSXQ)

A Pre Note

I am not a top-100 player, as given the inevitable RNG of effects, matchups and draws in card games, and the lack of rewards for ranking up in LoR, I simply don't see the point in painstakingly grinding up to such a level. The highest I've climbed is low Diamond, but considering the above knowledge, I believe that at a certain skill level (perhaps at around Platinum), it's more about how much time one can put in than how skilled they are. HOWEVER, considering all this, I have the absolute conviction that this deck is a top-100 worthy deck.

Introduction

This is the only deck that I've played since Day 1 of Call of the Mountain, with various modifications, and I believe that it is a completely undiscovered meta unicorn. I've never faced a similar deck on ladder, and my deckbuilding experiments with any other archtypes have left me completely unsatisfied with the lack of interaction and agency, as well as the sheer counterability of the vast majority of tools currently out there.
A lot of people are frustrated with the current meta - a lot of points of which are covered by BruisedByGod in his recent video critique. To summarize his main points:
  1. Most answers are completely outclassed by threats
  2. Sheer lack of healing options locks out deckbuilding choices
  3. Most top-tier strategies prey on lack of interactivity (Pirate Burn, Lee Sin OTK, Star Spring)
This is a Control deck which, while originally devised to prey on the inevitably popular Aurelion Sol and Troll Chant and abuse the broken, flexible toolbox of Invoke on Day 1, also manages to both answer all 3 of these problems efficiently.

Card Choices

Early Tempo/Nightfall

Simply the best available early-game that an Invoke Targon deck could hope to muster - Diana functioning as both early game and late-game removal (we have just enough Nightfall Synergy) for practically no investment, Pale Cascade being legitimately one of the most broken cards currently in the game, and the ping cards also serving a modicum of uses at all stages of a match.
Spacey Sketcher has been severely underrated so far - providing critical tools for certain matchups and/or providing early game minions without needing to actually run them (a fundamental weakness of faster decks top-decking late). Its 'discard-replace' synergy with our late-game, as well as Duskpetal Dust and meta-call flex cards is just icing on the cake.
Finally, note how every early game card I've chosen scales well and still plays a role as the game goes later; as removal, Elusive blocking, tool-building, Burst-speed Nightfall, pings and cantrip Combat Tricks. This is an often overlooked but fundamental difference between Control early-drops, and aggro early-drops (such as Precious Pet).
~

Removal

These two cards, combined with any generated Obliterates, form the only proper removal this deck has - and were the catalyst for me creating this deck in the first place. All three of these removal types leave almost NO room for the opponent to interact with them, and I believe that is the sole condition for a high-cost removal spell to be playable in the current game state.
NOTE: Ruination is easily and always played around at a high-level of play - and leaves the opponent with ALL of the agency/choice to play around it/bait it exactly how they wish, instead of you (whose only options are to play the card too early and get out-tempo'd afterward, use more than 3 mana elsewhere to catch-up at which point it becomes unplayable, or lose the game to a sudden-attack completely at your opponent's discretion) - the ultimate NO-NO for this deck: I never even considered putting it in.
~

Meta Call Flex Spots

At times I feel as if this card could be cut to 1 copy, but right now 2 feels great against the current meta, and drawing into at least one is almost necessary in order to compete with Star Spring (Obliterate is conditional and too great a tempo loss early on). In other metas previously, I've experimented with 1 copy of Passage Unearned, as well as 2 extra copies of Lunari Shadestalker.
~

Literally Everything Else One Could Ever Hope to Need

I still believe that Invoke is one of the most broken mechanics currently in the game. This is one of the heaviest late-game decks I can possibly imaginable, yet the only cards above 5-mana we run are removal, and our mid-game minions and healing straight up provide whatever early OR late-game tools we might possibly need in any matchup - it's simply overly flexible (flexilibity in card games being a MUCH bigger deal than most people give it credit for) and not enough of a tempo/stat sacrifice IMO. I think that Invoke as a mechanic is even stronger when ran in bulk, and especially in a Control deck - as the game goes on slowly you generate a toolbox that can handle just about any dynamic situation that meta decks can throw your way.
The spell-mana nerf to Living Legends has balanced it out quite a bit, however the same-nerf to Cosmic Inspiration still hasn't convinced me that it isn't in the top 5 least healthy effects that a game based on carefully stat-balanced of minion trading could ever have (hit me up with your Cosmic Inspiration hate!) - a large proportion our games are won by this disgusting effect.
Solari Priestess and Starshaping need no introduction as some of the most popular, utilitarian Invoke cards, however Mountain Scryer and Moondreamer (not so much Lunari Priestess) really put in the work, and I've never seen anyone else play these cards. The former provides crazy mana-advantage as the game goes on given our huge focus on Celestials (it's a shame we can't afford to push its Invoke chances even higher), and the latter has juuussst the right stat distribution at 3/5 to blockade most midgame tempo plays out opponent might go for.
NOTE: Aurelion Sol is straight up unnecessary to compete late-game, is always burdensome and clunky draw, ruins our surprise factor (though that doesn't exist anymore with this post being made), and we often outvalue decks running him anyway (don't forget that the original premise of this deck was 'How can I best remove Aurelion?').
~

Matchups/Strategy (Order Based on Mobalytics Tier List)

Lee Sin (60/40)

A somewhat favored matchup - although more recent lists that have cut Bastion in favor of Nopify may be a bit more in their favor (a proper Ping Counter). Hard mulligan for Spacey Sketcher, Sunburst and our pings. Generating Silence (Equinox) for Mentor of the Stones/Zenith Blade is our main early game goal. Our Mid-to-Late game goal is removing all 3 Lee Sin's at the expense of practically everything else (the rest of their deck is pretty much completely irrelevant, but rushing them down is also pretty much impossible) - after which our win is basically guaranteed.
~

Swain/TF (80/20)

I believe that we are very, very heavily favored if played properly (although it's a VERY nuanced matchup to play right), and most of our losses come from bricking our early-game draws and/or not drawing/generating a single Starshaping/Golden Sister as their burn damage inevitably builds up. Hard mulligan for all 1/2 cost cards (only keep 1 Pale Cascade with a 1/2 cost minion).
~

Pirate Aggro (55/45)

We are much more prone to bricking on draws here than Swain/TF, as we need quite a specific hand to deal with their onslaught - This is probably our most draw-dependent, low-agency matchup by far - as face-deck matchups tend to be. In addition - Captain Farron is much more effective against our removal strategy than the likes of Leviathan. Nonetheless, from my experience I think that we're still every-slightly-so favored in this matchup - often winning by the skin of our teeth. Starshaping/Golden Sister are mandatory late-game, and not bricking by not drawing/generating either is also basically a loss. Hard mulligan for all 1/2 drops, and keep a single Sunburst for Gangplank if your hand is already looking great.
~

Warmother's (25/75)

A very unfavored and binary matchup (see below as to why) that has luckily become rarer recently. Mulligan for Removal/Invoke cards.
~

Trundle/Asol (75/25)

This deck was basically created on Day 1 specifically to destroy Trundle/Asol. Sadly though, even at 75/25 the matchup is worse than it should be due to the nature of Invoke RNG - if one player draws into Cosmic Inspiration and the other didn't the match is over, full stop + the occasional shenanigans involving The Great Beyond uninteractibly going face and non-stop Living Legends value. Mulligan for Sunburst, Vengeance and pings.
~

Discard Aggro (80/20)

I don't know why this deck is considered competitive - maybe because our matchup here is basically as favored as TF/Swain except without any gameplay nuance required on our part. Mulligan for 1-2 drops. Keep Solari Priestess/Sunburst if hand is good. Only necessary statistical losses to bad early draws against an aggro archtype.
~

Fiora/Shen (70/30)

Another draw dependent, but quite favored matchup. Quite difficult to play though - you need to balance maintaining some modicum of tempo whilst also being able to deal with their crucial threats. Mulligan for 1-2 drops ESPECIALLY Pale Cascade/Pings, and Removal.
~

Scouts (60/40)

Basically the Pirate Aggro matchup but a tad bit slower and with no burn - giving you more leeway to make up for bad draws both early and late.
~

Leona/Lux (80/20)

Basically the Trundle/Asol matchup except with no 'must remove ASAP' threats giving you more leeway to make up for bad draws. Celestial RNG and especially Cosmic Inspiration still give them a chance to win as usual.
~

Shyvana Dragons (50/50?)

I surprisingly, haven't faced too much of this deck yet personally, but looking at it's cards compared to ours, I think the matchup would be about 50/50 (an otherwise favourable looking matchup affected a bit by their high tempo removal and guaranteed Cosmic Inspiration in the form of Kadregrin).
~

Ashe/Sejuani (70/30)

This matchup is dependent on whether we draw removal for Ashe somewhat on curve, how much tempo they manage to build early on and whether we draw good enough to afford to play around Reckoning. Mulligan for Sunburst, Solari Priestess, Pings and Diana (only if you've already drawn support) as our other standard early drops are all pretty ineffective against theirs.
~

Endure (85/15)

Probably our most favored meta-deck matchup, and unfortunately rarer recently. Their win conditions - Kalista, Blighted Caretaker tempo, Neverglade Collector and They Who Endure simply don't stand a chance against our toolbox. Most losses come from unanswered Blighted Caretaker tempo. Mulligan for Spacey Sketcher, Sunburst and Pale Cascade.
~

Deep (0/100)

The biggest downside and sheer impossible matchup of this archtype. Maokai manages to pack even less interactivity/inevitability than we do, and the nature of our deck gives us no chance of out-tempoing Deep early OR late. Auto-concede.
~

Diana/Nocturne (75/25)

A simpler aggro matchup than the others. Mulligan for 1-2 drops - especially Spacey Sketcher and Diana, as well as Sunburst.
~

Tahm-Kench/Soraka (70/30?)

Another matchup that I haven't faced too much of just yet. Mulligan hard for Divergent Paths and Solari Priestess - Once we remove their uninteractive element trump-card in the Landmark win-condition, if we can survive their early tempo, the rest of the match should be a cinch given our heal/health-ignoring conditionless removal for their Champions.
~

Conclusion

Thanks for reading up to this point, and pardon my formatting, the ridiculous length and the sheer pomposity of it all.
I still think Invoke is flexible to the point of being broken and the only reason the matchup spread is so good. I also think that with the release of this guide - more people will come to recognise this archtype and the element of surprise affecting enemy mulligans against an assumed more aggro, Nightfall-focused Diana archtype will be lost. People will also know to play around less common cards such as Sunburst, and I expect winrates to fall somewhat across the board.
To conclude this guide, I'd like to say that this is this is not a healthy deck. At the deepest level, this deck is fundamentally about removing agency from your opponent and giving it to yourself, as well as securing the critical boon of having inevitability over your opponent in a game with the nature of LoR. If all decks were like this, LoR would completely cease to be fun.
What else do I think is unhealthy right now? - Simple: anything removing interactivity from your opponent - ESPECIALLY as a win condition; Maokai, Star Spring, Cosmic Inspiration, Lee Sin. The avenues through which these cards can be interacted with are way too limited right now.
A lot of the metagame nowadays is about having an uninteractable win condition, or focusing damage to face so fast the opponent has no chance to react - another form of non-interactivity. Here's hoping that the meta in the near future heads back in the direction of the close but fair midrange board battles we all came to love back in vanilla LoR.
~
(slinx4)
submitted by poklipart to LoRCompetitive [link] [comments]

CMV: Cosmetic Genital Surgeries on Intersex Children Shouldn't be Legal

Nature doesn't follow the boundaries that humans have created to define male and female. Internal and external genitalia, chromosomes, gonads, and hormones don't always align with the binary classifications. And this is not a rare occurrence. According to what is thought to be the most accurate study to date (Blackless, "How sexually dimorphic are we? Review and synthesis"), approximately 2% of the population is born with differences in sex development, aka bodies that don't align with what is typically male or female. That is the same as the percentage of people with green eyes or red hair- ~156 million people. Differences in sex development aren't anomalous, they are an expected biological variation on the spectrum of sex development.
But western/modern culture doesn't recognize this and actively erases the existence of intersex traits because they don't conform to the binary model we created. Due to the pressure to fit in with the social understanding of male and female, "gender normalizing" surgeries are often performed. These are rarely medically necessary and take place even when the infant is perfectly healthy. These surgeries didn't start because medical professionals were didn't know the sex of the infant, they started because they thought society wouldn't be able to accept their bodies' differences as the sex they were. Essentially, they are only done to enforce gender norms. Even when they present no harm to the infant, doctors pathologize intersex traits and present them as a medical emergency. For the majority of cases, the only "medical emergency" is that intersex traits challenge the sex binary of modern society and the medical professionals' ideas of gender and sex.
Infants and children cannot consent, so these surgeries also violate their right to autonomy over their bodies and futures. They are irreversible and can have lifelong consequences. When it is done with parental consent, the parents who make the decision for their children are often uninformed and pressured by the doctors. The surgical procedures are also an issue in and of themselves. They often only focus on heteronormative sexual performance. For example, the surgically constructed vaginal canal just has to be “a hole big enough to fit a typical-sized penis. It is not required to be self-lubricating or even to be at all sensitive” (Dreger). Clitoridectomies (the removal or reduction of the clitoris) are associated with permanent nerve damage, scarring, incontinence, loss of sexual function, and painful intercourse. Studies done by C.L. Minto and Peter Lee found that almost 80% of people who received clitoridectomies as an infant had difficulty experiencing sexual pleasure, 56% had dyspareunia, and approximately 40% had complete anorgasmia. Under the U.S law, female genital mutilation is considered to be barbaric and a human rights violation that's illegal even when a consenting adult requests it. Yet when it happens to infants with intersex conditions that cannot consent, it's apparently fine. Also, unnecessary gonadectomies in infants makes them sterile, taking away their choice to have kids and forcing them to rely on HRT for the rest of their life. There is also evidence that genital surgery on infants has worse outcomes than for adults. The results of vaginoplasties tend to be be more successful when the patient has higher estrogen levels and there is a reduced rate of vaginal stenosis when performed in adulthood. The scar tissue can also limit the options for genital surgery that the patient might want/need in the future
I'm completely pro cosmetic genital surgery once the intersex individual is old enough to consent and has been fully informed on the risks and benefits of the procedures. I'm also not against assigning a gender to an infant at birth, I just think that can be done without surgical intervention. I just don't see what's wrong about waiting and seeing how the child develops (because doctors can attempt to predict this, but it is not 100% accurate) and what gender they end up identifying as (which cannot be predicted). The lack of consent for an irreversible surgery, violation of body integrity, risk of assigning the wrong gender, loss of sexual function, and nonconsensual sterilization are all huge red flags for me.
The main arguments I ever see against this is that it makes things easier for the parents and the child's future "psychological health", but even those things have been disproved. Actually, research shows that besides physical harm, the surgeries can cause significant mental harm as well, including PTSD, gender dysphoria, iatrophobia, body dysmorphia, genophobia, depression, trust issues, suicidal ideation, anxiety disorders, self-loathing, etc (Tamar-Mattis). I suppose I do somewhat understand why it happens, especially since our society that cares so much about appearance and people tend to fear things that are "different." But that's not really a logical explanation and also doesn't mean it is ethical and should be legal. Also, society is much more accepting of differences now (as compared to the 1960's when these surgeries became popular) and sometimes even celebrates them. I can't think of any legitimate, evidence-backed reason as to why cosmetic genital surgery for infants with intersex conditions should continue to happen.
I must admit that I have bias, as I am an intersex male who was subjected to cosmetic feminizing surgery as an infant and I'm pretty salty about it. However, I want to hear more from those who believe it should be done and am open to revising my views on the issue. I would like to ask that you include credible sources when mentioning statistics, etc. I am happy to dm my bibliography of sources to anyone who requests it.
submitted by Pineappleexpress73 to changemyview [link] [comments]

[Results] If You're Reading This, You Probably Think You're Short. Results of the Short/Tall Survey

Hello everyone!
The results are in from the "Do You Think You're Short or Tall?" and there are some very interesting results to be shared. Before that happens though a quick note. I'm going to be referring to the terms Female, Male and Gender Non-Binary during this post. Participants were asked which Gender the identify as regardless of their sex. While I personally don't think that influences the data, I wanted to make that clear going into this discussion
A total of 139 participants took the survey but one submission had to be thrown out due to clearly falsified data. The results found that majority of people considered themselves to be short (61.6%) as opposed to tall (38.4%). The average height for a short person was 5 feet 4 inches (1.63 m) and 5'11" (1.8 m) for a tall person. When presented with the option to change their height, short people tended to want to be taller (70%) and tall people either wanted to stay the same height (40%) or be taller(44%). When running a Random Forest Analysis, the highest indicators for whether a person considered themselves short or tall were the input from their parents and their friends. This makes sense because if people continually describe you as a thing, you are more likely to consider yourself to be that thing.
When comparing data based on gender, some interesting patterns appeared. Most females considered themselves short (67.65%) but most males consider themselves to be tall (54.9%). The average height of short and tall people was different based on participant gender. The average height for a short male was 5'6" (1.68 m) and 5'2" (1.57 m) for a short female. The average height for a tall male was 6'0" (1.83 m) and 5'9" (1.75 m) for a tall female. What's worth point out is that the average short height for both males and females is actually the same as the average height for humans. When it came to attraction, females were more attracted to people that were taller than them (82.1%) while males were more attracted to people shorter than them (62.5%). While we did receive submissions from people who were gender non-binary, the data returned from these submissions was not statistically significant and highly varied so no clear estimations could be made.
I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on these results and I am always willing to receive feedback and answer questions about the data. Thank you all for listening and stay classy, my friends! :)
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How to Compare Binary Options Brokers. As binary options trading continues to gain prominence as an alternative investment and hedging vehicle, the number of binary options brokers entering the business, to take a slice of the market, has grown manifold. However, not all the binary options brokers will suit a trader’s risk profile. Top 3 Binary Options Brokers 1. IQ Option. IQ Option is the leader of our top 3 binary options platforms with its top-notch user interface for traders and excellent fusing of functionality and transparency. It is considered as one of the most reliable and trustworthy binary brokers in the industry as it’s licensed and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec). The ... Here are some things to look at when you want to compare binary brokers. Short Introduction to Binary Trading. Like the name suggests, in binary trading, traders need to pick the direction of a trade. Or, of a market. Binary options brokers offer a few financial products or financial instruments to trade. Most of them are regular currency pairs from the Forex market: EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD ... How to Compare Binary Options Trading Platforms. You will require a software trading platform in order to activate binary options which will allow you to make high quality and informed decisions on each underlying asset that you intend to trade. In addition, such a facility must provide you, as a minimum requirement, with rapid, secured and accurate trade execution, status tracking, important ... Best binary options broker is one who strives to make the investor’s job easier. An investor who is looking for a broker need to find one who offers an easy sign up, this enables the trader to get an account as well as start running it immediately. To get one who fits this description, an investor need to carry out a search so as to come up with an individual who is reliable. The investor ... How to Compare Brokers and Platforms. In order to trade binary options, you need to engage the services of a binary options broker. Here at binaryoptions.net we have provided a list with all the best comparison factors that will help you select which trading broker to open an account with. Binary options brokers and their income rely on the difference between payouts and deposits, so they’re keen to maximise their advantage. There are variations but it isn’t always easy to compare brokers’ payouts because they can alter according to the underlying asset in the trade, as well as the expiry time of the option. Also, payouts will move because the broker will try to mitigate ... Compare Binary Option Platforms Based On Your Friends Recommendations & likes To Get The Best, Unbiased And Trusted Options Today! Learning free binary option; อุปกรณ์จัดเก็บ กล่องเก็บอาหาร ชั้นวางของในครัว; อุปกรณ์อื่นๆ อุปกรณ์ทำความสะอาด ถุงดำ แรป และอื่นๆ Some binary options brokers offer much longer expiry times of a month or more while others consider the end of the day to be a longer expiry time. If you are new to binary options and don’t yet know which you prefer, it may be best to go with a broker that has a wider variety of expiry time options to choose from so you can find one that fits you best.

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Autochartist Binary Options TTFX MT4

List of the best 5 Binary Options Broker 2020 Review & Comparison Read the full list: https://www.trusted-broker-reviews.com/binary-option-broker/ Subs... This channel will show my recommendations and strategies which will help you win at binary options as well as forex trading. I will compare various binary op... CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFO: https://rebrand.ly/forex33 And start earning in the Forex Market Now! In our expanding multinational business atmosphere, there are... In this video we give you an insight into our recommended brokers. We give broker details, such as, demo accounts, initial deposits, tradable options, expiry... In the video, I provide a detailed broker comparison between 24 Option and ETX Capital on various aspects, on expiry times, pair selections, broker service, deposits and withdrawals, etc, to make ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFO: https://rebrand.ly/forex33 And start earning in the Forex Market Now! In our expanding international company atmosphere, there are ... Binary Options Broker Comparison: http://de.binary-options-pro.com/x/vergleich Watch This Video For The Best high/Low Alternatives! In this video I compare t... MORE TOOLS : BINARY.COM AUTO TRADING : https://www.ezbinarybot.com https://www.ezworm.ezbinarybot.com DIGIT DIFFER / MATCH / EVEN / ODD : https://www.digitst... BINARY OPTIONS STRATEGY: BINARY OPTIONS TRADING TUTORIAL, BEST BINARY OPTIONS STRATEGY 2016 - Duration: 4:38. ... Compare Binary Options Signals 45,477 views. 4:35. Ichimoku Set ups For Binary ...

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